Back-to-school shopping season is starting earlier than ever this year, with 67 percent of shoppers already making purchases by early July, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey.
This marks a significant increase from last year (55 percent) and indicates the highest early shopping rate since NRF began tracking this data in 2018. Back-to-school shopping represents the second-largest retail event of the year, trailing only the holiday shopping season.
What’s behind the early start to back-to-school shopping?
Concerns about tariffs and rising prices are fueling this early start to the shopping season. More than half of families report they’re shopping earlier specifically because they worry prices will increase due to tariffs. New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports—including essential school items like backpacks, pens, binders, and shoes—have contributed to price uncertainty.
Despite the early shopping trend, most families (84 percent) still have at least half of their back-to-school purchases left to complete. Parents cited waiting for better deals (47 percent), uncertainty about the items their kids need (39 percent), and spreading out their budgets (24 percent) as the main reasons for their incomplete shopping lists.
How are back-to-school prices looking this year?
Families with K-12 students plan to spend an average of $858.07 this year on school essentials—slightly down from $874.68 in 2024. However, total back-to-school spending is projected to reach $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year, as more consumers purchase apparel and electronics.
These figures come against a backdrop of significant price increases in recent years. According to Deloitte’s 2025 back-to-school survey, school supply prices have risen by 30 percent over the past five years, putting additional pressure on family budgets.
For parents navigating this shopping season, the message is clear: planning ahead and spreading out purchases may help manage costs during a time of economic uncertainty. With most families still having significant shopping to complete, the coming weeks will remain crucial for both retailers and budget-conscious parents preparing for the new school year.
